The Wisdom of Slopers

7 09 2009

In last night’s post, I wrote:

One thing you can count on: at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday, things are going to get very interesting! I already know, for me, it’s either going to be a very good day or a very bad day. I am pretty sure that I’m going to go long the /ES in a big way before the announcement because I *cannot* be totally short and have a surprise. But I think I’m going to hold off until shortly before the announcement. Any thoughts and opinions on that tactic?

Well, people generally thought it was a bad idea, and for that I am grateful! TwoJacks wrote:

I’m expecting Fed-day like activity immediately surrounding the jobs number, so the key for me will be not touching the dials until things settle down. I don’t think we’ll collapse and I don’t think we’ll crash on the number. Somehow, I think a bigger move would’ve already happened. Too many insiders know the number already for price to be this quiet. I’m leaning toward the idea that it’s a non-event.

And blues wrote:

Well, ” going to go long the /ES in a big way before the announcement because”, I’m not sure if that such a good idea… Often right after the job report, the 1 minute candle can get really crazy and fast (like this morning’s job report, it drop like almost 4 points in the first 1 minute candle). So what happen if first candle go down like 3-4 points right away, are you going to get scare into selling it? If not, when ARE you going to sell it? Now if it goes down 3-4 points and BOUNCE BACK right away, but you got scare into selling it first, then what you going to do? buy it back? I’ve tried that tactic before, is useless, it may just scare you into the wrong direction and waste of money.

Sound advice! These Slopers are a smart bunch!

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